Arrival at the Island (1) – Retrospective

(Another change of tack)

Jim looked out of the window of the small coffee shop and nursed his cup. A lot had changed in the past week. He had been looking for a new start. This was certainly as new start, but was it what he wanted. Only time would tell. One thing was certain – the money would be very welcome!

JIm looked out of the window and reviews the last week. He had returned from the interview with Litvenyenko and Medinger feeling slightly unsettled. It wasn’t that things had gone badly it was more that he came away feeling that he hadn’t really understood what had happened. The location had seemed so strange. It was almost as if the two people were using rooms in an empty building. That was odd in the centre of London.

The following day he had started thinking about how long he should wait for a job offer and what he should do if one did not come? He found himself fretting, and had gone out for a walk to take his mind of things.

One day later he was checking his eMail when the doorbell rang. That surprised him. He did not receive many visitors and he was not expecting anyone. When he opened the front door he was met by a courier holding a flat rectangular box. That was even more of a surprise. He had not ordered anything. Having checked the name and address, he signed the courier’s tablet device and took the package inside. It contained what appeared to be a brand-new laptop! On the top of the laptop was a large brown envelope addressed to him.

 (Part of the “Tyson” project: 31st January 2017 – 273 words)

Interview (11) – The Test

Medinger gestured towards one of the desks.

GM: Please sit there.

Jim sat down.

GM: In front of you, on the laptop you will see there is a terminal emulator. I would like you to log on to one of our servers. The userid and password you need are on the file card to your right.

Jim picked up the card and did as he was asked. He was about to ask something when Medinger continued.

GM: I will ask you to look at some things and perform some tasks. There is no need for you to tell me what you are doing. I can see everything you do on the screen in front of me. It is as if I was looking over your shoulder.

Jim nodded that he understood and then the test began. It was strange. Jim was aware that he was being observed. At first the tasks were simple. He was simply finding things in the directory structure. As time progressed he had to concentrate harder because the tasks became more involved and required more thought. He started using different application programs, some of which were entirely new to him.

Jim became aware that he was looking at data too. He suspected it had been obfuscated in some way. He seemed to be getting glimpses into what this company was doing but it wasn’t at all clear. He was curious to look at some things, but was reluctant to stray from the path of exactly what he had been asked to do.

From time to time he glanced across at Medinger. Each time he did, he say Medinger leaning back in his chair with his hands clasped behind his head, staring intently at the screen in front of him.

Quite suddenly, there came a pause. Jim looked up again. The doctor was leaning forward, apparently focusing on something on his screen. A brief smile seemed to flicker on his lips and then he turned to Jim.

GM: Good! That will do for now.

He paused, and looked up towards the ceiling, as if he was listening to someone else.

GM: Yes, I agree. Entirely satisfactory.

Then looking towards Jim,

GM: You will be hearing from Anastasia in due course.

JG: Is that all? Do you need to know anything more?

Jim glanced at the time in the bottom corner of the screen. Nearly 2 hours had passed since he had started the exercise with the Doctor and he had hardly spoken a word.

GM: No. We already know everything we need to know. Anastasia will contact you shortly.

And that was it! A few minutes later Jim found himself, with his suitcase, standing in the road looking back at the dilapidated house and wondering, what on earth has just happened? And what is going to happen next?

The drizzle had stopped and the day was clearing. Puzzled, he made his way towards the hotel he had booked for the evening.

 (Part of the “Tyson” project: 29th January 2017 – 494 words)

Interview (10) – The Doctor’s room

 (Change of tack – I’m going to write this piece of conversation as a play. Little description, no “he said – she said”, no stage directions – This is just to see how an approach works. A lot of this is experimentation.) (Continued)

Jim found himself nodding, but he was also a little confused at the way the conversation was going. This did not feel like a conventional interview at all, and the interaction between GM and AL was distinctly odd and rather unsettling.

Suddenly the Doctor got up

GM: Would you mind doing a little test for us? Rather than ask you lots of detailed questions, I would like you to show us what you can do. Would you mind?

JG: No. Of course not. What do you want me to do?

GM: Just follow me. Leave your bag here. It will be perfectly safe. There is nobody in this building except Anastasia and me and, of course, yourself.

He got up abruptly and walked to the door.

GM: Bring your coffee with you.

Outside on the landing, the doctor began climbing the stairs to the next level. Jim followed, not really knowing what was expected.

On the next level, the doctor paused to unlock a room and then paused at the door to usher Jim inside.

The room was a surprise to Jim. As far as he could tell, it looked out on the front of the building, overlooking the road. Sunlight streamed in through the window, but all Jim could see was sky and clouds, because between the window and the room proper a partition had been erected with upward sloping slats, like an enormous, rigid, Venetian blind. Jim surmised that this construction would prevent anyone at street level having any awareness of what was going on in this room, even at night. Jim remembered the Doctor’s earlier comments about “privacy”

The room was furnished smartly in a sparse functional style. There were three desks arranged in a loose “U” formation, each with an expensive mesh-backed chair behind it. On two of the desks sat laptop computers. Jim noticed that each computer was connected to power and network tables which descended from a tiled suspended ceiling. In the corner of the room stood what was probably a networking cabinet, with lights flickering behind a smoked glass door. (continued)

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 26th January 2017 – 347 words)

Interview (9) – Conversation Three

 (Change of tack – I’m going to write this piece of conversation as a play. Little description, no “he said – she said”, no stage directions – This is just to see how an approach works. A lot of this is experimentation.) (Continued)

AL: We consider it highly desirable. We got to great lengths to keep our business and the information about it secure from the outside world.

JG: If you don’t mind me asking, what exactly is your business? I realise it isn’t strictly necessary for me to know, but I’m curious. I tried to do a little research myself, and I found surprisingly little. You’re obviously technically aware and yet you have a remarkably sparse digital footprint.

DM smiled has he spoke. He had large white teeth. The effect was unsettling.

DM: We don’t mind you asking in the least. If we are to do business together, then we don’t think we need to have any secrets from you, but we do value our privacy. Our business is in two areas: biotechnology – specifically research into cell replication and cancer and what might loosely be called computer networking and the transmission of incremental changes to dynamic datasets. If you are interested, you will have opportunities to learn more during your work for us.

JG: I think I see. The computer networking is closer to my expertise than biotechnology. It seems an unusual mixture of businesses. I don’t altogether see how the two businesses fit together, but then, it’s not my business, it’s yours” He said with a smile.

AL: The two different business lines are the results of a past merger between two entities. We find there is a useful symbiotic relationship between the two which although it may not be obvious, is extremely useful to us.

JG: I’m not sure I understand, but I don’t think it has much bearing on what you want me to do for you. Again, for my curiosity, why have you based your business in such a remote location? I don’t think you’ve mentioned where it is.

AL: The location is an island called “Eilean Banrigh”, which means “Queen’s Island” in Scottish Gaelic. The painting above the fireplace is the view from the highest point. (She said, indicating the picture)

We use that location for a number of reasons: An important, though perhaps not the most important, is that the island belonged to one of our main investors, that of course was a considerable help when we were starting our company. The second reason is that operating on an island is a help for research into both of our areas of interest. Using an island makes it easier to manager bio-security and the remoteness reduces the stray electromagnetic radiation we have to deal with.

 (continued)

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 20th January 2017 – 418 words)

Interview (8) – Conversation Two

 (Change of tack – I’m going to write this piece of conversation as a play. Little description, no “he said – she said”, no stage directions – This is just to see how an approach works. A lot of this is experimentation.)

AL:       . (continued) You see, while ‘there being only one of you’ obviously imposes limitations, it has distinct advantages for our company.

GM: Our company places a very high value on confidentiality and employing a single person means that only one outsider has to deal with sensitive information.

AL: And we know that you have a reputation for integrity in handling confidential information.

Jim found himself looking from person to person, like a umpire at a tennis match.

GM: And there is a further practical advantage,

AL: We would want you to work and live at our premises for a while. Having only one person to accommodate will obviously be easier for us.

Jim did not know who to look at or who to answer. He spoke looking straight ahead and then glancing from one to the other.

JG: You want me to work here?

AL: Oh no. Not here. Our base is a long way from here, in the North West of Scotland. We use these premises when we have business to transact in London. Would you be prepared to move to the North of Scotland, an island in fact, for 2 or 3 months?

(Jim turned to face Litvenyenko – He felt uneasy turning his back on Medinger)

JG: Is that necessary? Surely the work you need could be done remotely. I could access the server, wherever that is and perform the configuration from somewhere more convenient. I might need to visit your place in Scotland a couple of days should be sufficient, it’s hardly likely to take months.

(Once again the conversation is bounding from one side of Jim to the other)

GM: We could prefer the work to be performed on site. We are prepared to pay generously for the right person. We believe you are suitable and we will give you an opportunity in a moment to demonstrate that you are capable of doing what we require. Are you at least sufficiently interested to continue?

JG: Well yes, of course. I suppose I would be prepared to commit to 2 or 3 months if you really think it is necessary.

(continued)

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 19th January 2017 – 354 words)

Interview (7) – Conversation One

 (Change of tack – I’m going to write this piece of conversation as a play. Little description, no “he said – she said”, no stage directions – This is just to see how an approach works. A lot of this is experimentation.)

GM:     Well, Mr Gray, thank you for coming to see us.

JG:       That’s perfectly alright. I am looking for work and I like to respond to enquiries quickly.

GM:     Anastasia Petrovna gave you a very limited outline of what is required. We want someone to join us to help us to renovate some of our computer systems.

JG:       Renovate? What do you mean by “renovate”?

GM:     Over an extended period our company has accumulated a number of computer systems which we use to run our business. They were developed to serve particular needs and at different times. While they continue to work in a satisfactory way, their maintenance takes more effort than we would like. We would like to “renovate” or “modernise” and at present we do not have the expertise ourselves and we do not wish to expend the effort developing that expertise ourselves.

JG:       I think I understand. You want to replace some old systems. I have been worked on projects like that in the past. Can you tell me what these systems are and what they do?

AL:       Without you being aware of it, we have researched what you can do. You have a good reputation. We have discretely checked certain references and performed some background checks. What we want you to do is well within your capabilities. You do not have to be concerned.

GM:     The systems are mostly concerned with the administration of the transactions which support our business. They were originally created by our staff using the technology available at the time. Much of what they do is little more than “accounting” and the other general things a business requires. Rather than continue to expend the effort maintaining it we have decided to move a great deal of what these systems do to a modern software package” (he mentions a name) “I believe it is known as an ‘ERP’ package and you are familiar with it.”

JG:       Yes – I’ve worked with that. But that particular package is usually supplied through consultancies who sell set-up and training services along with the package. I don’t understand why you are coming to me? I’m an independent consultant and there is only one of me.

AL:       You’re correct. And you have touched on some of the reasons why we have come to you. (continued)

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 18th January 2017 – 385 words)

Rate of Change

(This starts in the middle of a discussion – ramblings which form part of a personal letter)

I’m not necessarily arguing that all these things need to be included or that they all have to be combined in some way. Some seem more appropriate for different historical periods and societies.

Rate of change - Power

Rate of change: (hp/head or dhpperhead/dt) I like it! At the very least it is a useful component of whatever index or indexes you might want to create. To use the George Box criteria, of course it is “wrong” (incomplete, imperfect) but it is certainly useful. You could apply this to any period from pre-1066 to the present. You can also apply it to different societies. For that matter, there must be points at which people first started to use energy other than muscle power (wind and water), and there is long lead-in with people converting heat to mechanical power, starting with Hero of Alexandria and really getting going with steam power during the Industrial Revolution. Identifying those points in different societies would be an interesting challenge in itself.

While the thing itself is interesting, the rate-of-change would certainly give one measure of technological change. Actually that seems like a good point in itself: the measure of the “thing” is useful, but so is the rate-of-change dthing/dt. I think I’ll come back to that.

Before we leave “energy” or hp, I think there is another aspect to look at. I think we need to have a measure of the ability to concentrate or harness (good choice of word) energy under the direction of one person. For example: the harnessing of animals – that increased the average amount of energy available in a society, but probably just as significantly it increased the amount of energy a single individual could bring to bear on a task. This argument extends to wind-power (especially sailing ships, but also windmills) and water-power. I’m not quite sure what the measure is, but it’s something like “amount that one person can control”, so, to pick up your Tesco car park analogy, it’s not just the power of all those cars (and everything else) averaged over society, but the average power of the individual engines and maybe the power of the largest engine. This allows you to look at the technological impact of: harnessing rowers and animals and sails and then steam engines. The concentration measure is important but becomes a bit tricky when you start trying to take into account power stations and the like.

Rate of Change – Transport

Transport is something you would want to consider as an “index”. In many ways the story of the Industrial Revolution in Britain was the story of “Transport”. You can see that in Turnpike roads, Canals, Railways and Shipping.

The measures here are the size (but average or maximum?) of thing you can move and the speed at which you can move it. You probably want to consider both people and goods too.

Here we can see the pattern repeating: the measure itself is interesting, but the rate at which it is changing at any time is interesting too. Take random points in the 15^th to 20^th Centuries and that is clear. You can also usefully indicate the dates at which technologies were discovered or applied.

Whatever the details of the design of the transport related indexes, you find something surprising. Concentrating on “The Western World” (whatever that is), I think there is a plateaux recently. This is stability not stagnation though.

(Here is one place that your “Concorde Moment” comment becomes relevant. Clarkson does speak sense sometimes)

If we look at Transport in the last part of the 20^th Century we can see a sort of stability.

·         Aircraft (commercial) fly at typically 350 knots, because that is the fuel efficient speed for current designs. That hasn’t changed for some time.

·         The size of Cargo ships is determined by “Panamax” dimensions, the size that will fit through two “eyes of a needle”. There are bigger ships but for the time being most are below this size.

·         The size and speed of trucks is really determined by the roads and the drivers. These things may change, but there has been stability for decades.

·         The maximum speed of cars on the road. The restriction is by speed limits, but they are also recognition of the competence of drivers.

·         The actual average speed of traffic is limited by congestion.

These things have not stagnated. They are improving, becoming more efficient and cheaper to run but any likely Transport indexes would probably show them as being on a plateaux, and consequently the rate-of-change being low.

Rate of Change – Communication

Communication is an area where we are seeing change. By “Communication” I mean the ability to get a message (definition problem again) from one place to another. For a long while “Transport” and “Communication” were synonymous. You gave a message to a messenger and it travelled by the appropriate means of transport until it was delivered at the far end.

That has changed. One lot of changes were organisational (things like The Penny Post) and another lot are technological. The technological changes might be considered starting with smoke signals and flags, but there are some really significant milestones with wired and broadcast technology: Telegraphs, telephones, the internet.

For the measures here I want to consider size of message and speed transmission (I think I’ll ignore reliability and security though they might be interesting). Of course the rate-of-change is as interesting as the values themselves.

What surprises me when I start to think about communication in this way is how “stable” it has been in some aspects. This may surprise you too, so let me explain.

I’m sending you a letter (over quite a distance too). If I had done this any time up to the 19^th (ish) Century it would have taken a long time, been expensive and unreliable. When the “Post” was established that became much cheaper and more reliable. In Edwardian times it would probably take a few days to get a letter from rural Ireland to rural Wales if it was one “gentleman” talking to another. The same letter is now delivered in less than a second, but the time is taken up by producing and consuming the content (which are probably the same as they were before). There is a hint there that we are asymptotically approaching some value.

At least two things have changed though: one is the nature and size of what I can communicate (I can send or converse with sound, video and suchlike. I can even send you whole book if I choose.). The second is the access to the communication channels. My fast mail service was only available to Edwardian gentlemen. Access was rationed by physical availability (you needed to be near a post box) and cost.

I’ve been a user of various computer networks over the years, and they have become easier to access. The internet is available to everyone I know.

This suggests to me that I want to consider some additional factors or indexes to describe access to communication.

Rate of Change – Information Storage

Information Storage is something which I think is important, but I don’t know how to characterise. As with the other things I’ve listed so far, you can trace how changes in technology have changed how we can store and access information. The base characteristic I would start with are: “volume” (number of characters of data, but I’m dubious about ‘a picture being worth a thousand words or bytes’) and I would also add characteristics based on speed of access and “accessibility”.

One way of looking at this you could say that we have access to an exponentially increasing volume of information. As a counter to that, already people argue that we have information overload. Here is the problem – the machines can store the data, the machines can process the data, but each human being can only consume so much. Viewed in a certain way I think we may be approaching a sort-of asymptote again. The restriction is not how much we can store or how quickly we can serve it up, but how quickly can we consume it. We may be approaching the situation of being in an “all you can eat” restaurant. Yes, there is more data available, but do we want to consume it? How much do you want or need to eat?

There seems to be “something to measure” here, and once it is pinned down, the way it is changing will be even more interesting. I have a suspicion that the results may spring a surprise on us, because of the limitations of human beings.

Rate of Change – Information Processing

The “volume of information” problem leads into the next area where we might need to consider some sort of measurement. If we use “Energy” as a metaphor, there was a time, in the 19^th Century, when the only computing power anyone had access to was inside of someone’s head! That is just like the “muscle based” energy economy.

This situation has changed dramatically, from the second half of the 20^th Century forward. The old “there’s more power in my phone than…” is true, but it is a challenge to decide how to measure it, and that is before you start calculating a rate-of-change. MIPs (millions of instructions per second) are useless (!) except as a gee-wizz number. Comparing different computer architectures like that simply doesn’t work.

However you consider measuring it, there you come back to wanting to have numbers for both “an overall average” (total computing power/population), and the quantity an individual has access to. I think there is a qualitative difference between, “my share” of the mega-whatever that does the weather forecasting in Bracknell, my mobile phone (which is a highly specialised computer and the PC I program (which is a more general purpose machine). What there is not in doubt is that the power of all 3 is shooting up according to Moore’s Law! You can probably also say that access to everything except the weather forecasting has been getting easier (more people have mobile phones, more people have PCs).

Summary

I think there are a number of things or “dimensions” which I think you might want to consider in your “Change” assessment:

• ·         Power/Energy – Your suggestion, and a good one
• ·         Transport
• ·         Communication
• ·         Information Storage
• ·         Information processing 

For each of these we should probably consider:

• ·         Absolute total value, averaged over the population
• ·         Amount an individual can “leverage” (ghastly phrasing)
• ·         Ease of access

·         For all of these values we are probably more interested in the rate of change than the absolute value.

Some of these dimensions seem to become more relevant at different time periods as technology enables people to use machines to do something. “Energy” seems to become especially relevant from around the start of the Industrial Revolution, and “Information Storage” and “Information Processing” became especially relevant from the middle of the 20^th Century. With all these things it is not possible to say that something starts at a particular moment, but it is possible to point at some indicative “punctuation marks” (“Stockton and Darlington Railway”).

When I started writing this, I was tempted to try and combine all these factors into one “super index”. I’ve moved away from that, because:

• ·         All the dimensions are subject to real problems with deciding what to measure and what units to use.
• ·         Combining them together would introduce weighting factors which would be suspect.
• ·         Applying any of these ideas across populations which are not homogeneous is problematic.

While writing this I’ve noticed something about the dimensions themselves:

• ·         They’re “technology related”.
• ·         Just because something new and relevant turns up, doesn’t mean the old stuff ceases to be relevant.
• ·         Predicting what they are in advance of them becoming relevant is very hard if not impossible.
• Some of the dimensions seem to have reached plateaux. This may not be due to the fundamental characteristics of the technology, but may be due to an accepted limitation (Panamax or railway bridges) or the ability of the market to consume whatever it is.

I think the criticism that these are all “technology related” is valid. There are all things which are worth exploring, but they do not represent everything. For many people they are not the most important.

(Stand-alone ramblings for a letter: 12th January 2017 – 2062 words)

Non-Technological Change

(This starts in the middle of a discussion – ramblings which form part of a personal letter)

How could you measure change in society? Is there anything you can use reliably and which is not judgemental? The things which spring to my mind are all related to population. At least part of this is influenced by my recent experiences with participating in the running of a census.

Measuring population is simple: count heads in a particular area! It is what censuses do every 10 years or so. One can plot the values over time and calculate the rate of change. It is crude but effective. Population density is a useful figure. It is like an “intrinsic” property. If handled properly it can be added and averaged.

The very crudity of the figures can be an advantage. There is no sense in which they are judgemental. “Population” as such is neither good nor bad. It is only or bad relative to some external criteria, such as the number of people we think a given area should support. Population (as an absolute, not a density) also gives us a crude expectation of “how many of something” to expect (eg demand for schools, demand for hospitals, number of burglaries).

Similarly, the values “movement” figures: births, deaths and physical movements are neutral. For both the base figures and the movements, judgement only comes in when you compare against some reference figure. That is a good thing, and it also means that you can retrospectively apply different reference figures without having to interfere with the base data.

If one is looking for greater precision, then all these figures can be subdivided into different categories. These are often described as “demographics”. The only hard rule here is that the categories should be applied consistently over time, and that the different categories in each “categorisation” should add up to 100% (even if that means having a blurry “unknown” category). This gives us the familiar “Male/Female” and age-range categories.

There are problems with categorisation which appear in the long term. They are mostly to do with the way we want to change the categories we use and the way that the judgemental part of putting things in some categories can change subtly over time.

Another area where there can be problems over the long term is the subdivision of geography into “areas”. This is always a problem, and it is very hard to get away from it. Whatever you do seems to end up causing some kind of issue.

Censuses in the UK and Ireland are still done on the basis of “County-Parish-ArbritrarySmallDivision”. There are actually quite a few administrative systems that work this way. The numbers that run the world are, at least partly, being tallied up on the basis of boundaries which were drawn up before the Reformation! You would kind of like to be dealing a roughly similar population in each of the areas, but over time this just doesn’t work!

People move about with the result that what was a densely populated area in one era is an uninhabited wasteland in another. You have only to look at the bickering over parliamentary constituency and county boundaries to see evidence of the problems this causes. The only solution, long term, is to map results against base physical geography, rather than administrative areas and then map those “physical” figures onto administrative areas as required. Unfortunately this approach is unlikely to be adopted. It would be unpopular with politicians, administrators and the public. It would require accurate coordinates to be held against every address and a mapping stage to decide which house was in which area/ In any case it is currently prevented by rules about confidentiality (which may be a very good thing). As a result, you have to be aware that changes in boundaries may be distorting the figures over time. The areas covered by “Loamshire” or “Greater Metroplecester” today may not be the same as they were 10 years ago, and certainly not a century ago. There is a conundrum here, and it makes using long term historic data quite hard.

How should one interpret whatever you find?

When looking at change, one has to ask about “stability” and what one means by “change”. This isn’t just a philosophical problem. It has practical implications and it raises some new and interesting questions which can be explored with the measures I’m suggesting above.

Let me illustrate this with a crude example:

• Suppose we have a location (doesn’t matter what size, and let’s assume the area remains fixed), with a population of 100.
• If the next time we measure, it still has a population of 100, then we might say it had not changed (and indeed it hasn’t, on one measure)
• On the other hand, if I said that there had been 50 births and 50 deaths, then you might say the population (as in “the people who live there”) had changed quite a lot, but the number of people hasn’t changed at all.
• To take a different counter example, if it is _exactly the same people_ living in the location, then _they_ haven’t changed, except that they are now one time period older! So there has been a change. 

Of course, this is what is happening in some “Western” (including Japan) societies.

·         

You can extend this by comparing a small hotel with a large family living in a similar sized house. The “population” (number of people) of both may be the same over time. The house population is static (the same individuals) over a period, the hotel is constantly churning, and that is exactly what you expect.

One of the things we are concerned with is change as a cause of “stress” in the system. Particular levels may not be a problem (or they may, I suppose). One could postulate two possible indicators of problems: one is the long, slow change which builds up to a problem, the other is a sudden change in something or the rate at which something happens.

Systems may actually work reasonably well even with a lot of change. Let’s use some of the examples above:

• ·         Suppose you have a location with a stable population. If you see a sudden change in population, then you would look for the cause in one of the “movement” factors. Such a sudden change may indicate something is happening in the system. The population drops: perhaps there has been a sudden rise in mortality (“the Black Death”). You would probably want to look for the cause in a change in one of the “Movement” measurements (if you have the data).
• ·         This is not to say that a high (or low) value in “Movements” is necessarily bad. If you look at the immigrant intake areas (eg parts of the East End in London) there are high “Movement” values. They are tough places to live, but they are stable in a dynamic, chaotic kind of way. On the other hand, suddenly stick 80 immigrants in an Irish village and that may trigger “instability”.
• ·         If we avoid being judgemental, then a high mortality rate may be acceptable, providing there is a high birth rate to match it.
• ·         Problems will follow if you change one thing without at least considering the consequences if you don’t change something else at the same time. Reduce infant mortality and the population goes up (maybe exponentially) unless something else happens. “Encourage” all the young people to immigrate and the age profile of an area will drift upwards.

This is all like a lot of control systems. If you are looking ahead, you want to be looking at the 1^st and even 2^nd derivatives of whatever you are trying to control.

Summary:

• My suggestion is that “population” or “population density” are good candidate measures.
• “Rate of Change” can be calculated for both.
• Measuring the “Movements” (as distinct from calculated rate-of-change) may be useful because it:
• tells us something about causes of change
• allows us to tell the difference between static situations and dynamic equilibrium
• may allow us to spot a change happening before it takes full effect.
• Demographic subdivisions can be applied to both base measures and movements to give greater precision. 
• Demographics and Areas are subject to long-term drift and may introduce subtle distortions.
• It looks like you can have dynamic equilibrium or the same population but you cannot eliminate all change!
•  When you start changing things (and you can’t not change things) you have to watch for the consequences.

(14th January 2017 – 1428 words)

Interview (6) – Meeting the Doctor

(New subsection of paragraphs)

The door opened and Anastasia stepped into the room and then stepped to one side of the doorway, waving her arm indicating that someone outside should enter.

“Hello again Mr Gray. I’m sorry we have kept you. Let me introduce you to Dr Medinger, the leader of our company.”

The figure who stepped into the room could be described as distinctive. He was a tall man, definitely over six feet wearing a smart light grey suit. What made him unusual was his face, and particularly his skin. His white hair receded from his high forehead. He had a dark olive complexion which seemed to have a peculiar, almost greenish hue.

“I am Medinger. I am pleased to meet you Mr Grey.” he said, with a clipped German accent. He extended a huge hand in greeting. As Jim grasped it firmly, he noticed that Medinger’s palm was coarse, like a labourer’s.

Medinger walked to the console table and poured a cup of coffee for himself, and without asking poured made a cup of tea for Anastasia.

“Please be seated. We will start our conversation in here” he said, indicating two of the sofas.

Jim sat in the seat facing the fireplace, Anastasia in the sofa to his left. Without speaking, Medinger placed the cup of black tea to the table in front of Anastasia, nodded his head in what might have been a bow and then seated himself in the seat in front of the window.

Jim found the seating arrangements slightly awkward. Medinger’s head was almost silhouetted buy the winter sunlight which lit his white hair from behind and produced a peculiar halo effect. There was also no way that he could have both of these people in his field of vision at the same time. He had to look at either one of them, or the other, never both. It made him feel uneasy.

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 15th January 2017 – 315 words)

Better to leave well alone

Do you believe in resurrection? I don’t mean as an article of faith, or in a metaphorical sense, or even in the macabre way you see in horror movies. I mean literally. I have seen the dead walk in broad daylight. It was both a pleasant surprise and deeply unsettling. Let me tell you about it.

I don’t know if anyone ever owns a cat. We have a cat that visits us periodically and allows us to feed her. She also allows us to open doors and condescends to sleep on a chair by the fireside. The neighbours on one side call her “Blackie” and we, showing no imagination at all, simply call her “Cat”.

Cat is plump, sleek and black. She has thick, shiny fur with a white star, or spot on her belly. She lives her own life. She comes in and out at times she chooses and woe betide the servant who does not open the door or bring sustenance when she requires it, because she is complains loudly.

The other day I was returning home from business. As I turned into my drive I noticed a black bundle lying motionless in the road a little beyond my house. As it wasn’t far away, I parked my car and walked back. There, lying motionless in the road was Cat, dead, the victim of a road accident. I prodded her corpse with the toe of my boot. There she lay, not apparently injured but motionless: fur dishevelled and slick with the drizzle, green eyes sightless and dull, beauty broken. Saddened, I turned back to the house wondering what to do.

I’m not particularly sentimental, but it seemed improper to leave her there on the road to be ground into the tarmac like refuse. I went to the garage, put on a fluorescent jerkin and picked up a shovel. Then I returned the 25 yards or so to the body, slid the shovel under it and lifted it up. There isn’t much weight in a cat. I could tell from the way the shovel slid under her body that rigor mortis was setting in.

The question now was: what to do with her? I rested the shovel, with Cat, on the top of a boundary wall while I considered what to do. This wasn’t something I had planned at all. I suppose I had intended to carry the body home and bury her in the garden, but that would have required digging a grave and the ground is stony. Instead, I waited for a break in the traffic and crossed to the other side where a small copse separates the field beyond from the road. Placing Cat on the verge, I reached down into the ditch and scraped a hollow with the shovel. I placed the body into the hole and dragged the autumn leaves across to cover it. It was the shallowest of shallow graves. There were no prayers and no tears but I felt melancholy as I trudged home in the light rain.

Imagine my surprise when, as I walked down the drive, out from behind my car walked Cat! She marched up to me and rubbed herself against my legs, mewing loudly. As the drizzle was turning to rain, I opened the back door and she swept past me, while I turned to the garage to put the shovel away. On my return indoors I found Cat in her usual station, on the chair by the fireplace. She watched me as I laid the kindling and lit the fire. All the time she had that look, which said: “Where have you been? Hurry up! It’s cold outside and I need the fire. And by the way – Where’s my tea?”

What had happened? Obviously there had been another cat which looked very similar to our Cat. It was this second, unknown cat which had been killed, and which I had buried. Except of course, there is room for another explanation.

When my wife returned home I told her what had happened. All the time we were being watched by Cat. My wife said: “Don’t you remember? Siobhan (one of my daughters) sprinkled the cat with Lourdes water.” And that was true. There was the tiny bottle of water, sitting on the kitchen table, and there was Cat, sitting on the chair beside the fire, washing herself.

So now there is the tiniest doubt in my mind. It seems just barely possible that I have been witness to a minor miracle and Cat has been granted an additional lease on life. I suppose I could try and put the conflicting explanations to the test, but the rational side of me has no wish to go digging for in a ditch for a corpse, and the part of me that hopes for miracles is reluctant to look, afraid of what I might, or might not, find. Sometimes it is better to leave well alone.

 (20th November 2016 – 825 words)

Interview (5) – Waiting Room

(New subsection of paragraphs)

Jim felt restless. He paced around the room. The view from the window looked across a narrow mews to a non-descript wall opposite. The steep angle prevented him seeing much below the window, but he thought there might be a tiny yard.

Turning inwards, above the fireplace hung a large picture in a narrow plain black frame. The picture showed a view, apparently from a high vantage point across a stretch of sea towards what were probably islands in the distance. The grass was green, the sea was grey and the islands in the distance were a hazy blue. It might be a scene from the Scottish or Irish coast. The picture was attractive, but the frame did not suit the room. Something heavier and more ornate would have been more appropriate. He wasn’t sure whether the picture was a painting or a photograph and he decided to take a closer look.

He walked to the fireplace and guiltily placed his cup and saucer on the mantelpiece. As he put it down, he brushed the surface with his finger-tips. The surface felt odd and he withdrew his hand quickly. Cautiously, he trailed his fingers along the surface. It was slick, like ice, but not at all cold. In the centre of the mantle sat a rather large carriage clock. It wasn’t showing the correct time. “It’s probably stopped” he thought and went to pick it up and inspect it more closely. To his surprise he found that either it was extraordinarily heavy, or it was stuck to the mantle. Its brass case felt strange and slick and there was something peculiar about the face but he couldn’t decide quite what it was.

Suddenly he heard a sound and, picking up his cup, he turned to face the door.

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 13th January 2017 – 298 words)

Interview (4) – Entrance Hall

(New subsection of paragraphs)

As Jim stood listening to the sounds coming from behind the door, he realised that he did not know what Anastasia Litvenyenko looked like. As he waited, he began conjuring up a vision of a middle-aged, Eastern-European woman. As a result, he was surprised when the door was opened by a smartly dressed young woman in her late twenties. She had a broad moon-like face and was dressed in a dark blue trouser-suit, her blonde hair combed back into a ponytail.

“Welcome Mr Gray” she said, pulling the shawl which was draped around her shoulders tightly to her chest and gesturing him to come inside.

“We’ve been expecting you.” She continued as she allowed him to pass and she turned to close and front door.

Jim mumbled an acknowledgement and took a moment to survey his surroundings. The hallway was empty of furniture. The floor was covered with a diagonal chequer-work of black and white tiles and was lit by a single, grimy, naked light-bulb. The hallway had an empty feel, felt chilly, even after coming in from the outside and he thought he could detect a musty odour, maybe even decay or the sulphurous smell of bad eggs.

“Please follow me.” She said, climbing the bare stairs.

The first floor landing was a bare as the entrance hall. The floor was uncarpeted and dark flock wallpaper bore the shadows where pictures had hung in the past. They climbed to the second floor, where she led him into a room which Jim worked out must face out towards the rear of the building, towards Fitzroy Square. Through the window he could see the distinctive shape of the Telecom Tower in the distance.

The room was brighter than Jim had expected from the gloomy and, if he was honest, rather dirty entrance hall and landing. Strangely, it seemed as if only the half of the room, from the fireplace to the window was expected to be used. That side of the room was carpeted but the remainder was covered with some plain brown rough material. The floor of the half of the room was covered with a yielding grey Berber carpet, and three identical modern leather sofas were arranged forming a squared with the fireplace. A glass-topped coffee table stood in front of each sofa.

“I know Dr Medinger is busy at present” apologised Anastasia, with a flash of white teeth “but we will come for you shortly. Please help yourself to something to drink” she continued, indicating a teapot, a coffee-pot on a hotplate and several jugs and carafes on a console table to one side of the fireplace.

With that she left the room and Jim was left alone. He looked around and poured a cup of black coffee. He felt like he was in a dentist’s waiting room.

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 11th January 2017 – 470 words)

Interview (3) – Doorstep

(New subsection of paragraphs)

Jim stood in front of the door, with his case beside him, feeling uneasy. This house looked completely wrong for what he was looking for. Was he the victim of some strange practical joke? How long should he remain standing here in the rain?

While he waited Jim looked up and down the building. Surely it was empty. It certainly didn’t look occupied.

Starting from the lowest level, he looked into the light-well cum yard which served the basement. Unlike some of the neighbouring houses, there no steps leading down the door into the tiny courtyard. Presumably the access door was in the bridge under his feet. There was a door which might be leading to an old coal cellar under the pavement. The windows into the house were shuttered on the inside. Litter lay about the courtyard. Buddleia had gained a foothold by one of the window sills.

On the ground floor, level with where he was standing, there were two large sash windows, once again with shutters pulled across on the inside. The windows were dirty and the shutters did not look like they had been opened in years. Jim could imagine the broad hallway on the other side of the door, with a door leading to the large room behind the windows, access through to the other rooms towards the rear of the building and a staircase leading upwards.

On the first floor there were three sash windows, two above the windows on the ground floor and one above the front door, this time each sash was glazed Georgian style with nine tall oblong panes. These windows were significantly taller than those on the ground-floor. Once again the windows were shuttered. The room inside must have a very high ceiling. Jim caught himself trying to imagine what it was like now and what it had been like in its heyday.

On the second floor, the story was repeated. Three windows, back to a more usual height, this time with only six panes for each sash, and once again shuttered.

Only on the third floor did the windows look like they did not have shutters on the inside. These were casement windows which would probably have served a nursery or possibly servants’ quarters. The angle meant that Jim could not see clearly, but there did not seem to be any curtains, and he could see no light in the gloom.

Jim began to debate with himself how long he should remain standing at the doorstep. The drizzle was getting heavier and soon he would be getting wet, If this was a wasted journey at least he could go somewhere warm. He reached into his pocket to pull out his mobile phone, when his attention was caught by the sound of someone unfastening a bolt on the inside of the door in front of him. There was someone inside after all!

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 9th January 2017 – 482 words)

Interview (2) – Destination

(New subsection of paragraphs)

Jim found the street he wanted without difficulty. It was one of several narrow streets which ran parallel to Tottenham Court Road and joined the roads running westward. For some reason, which wasn’t obvious, this one had a kink in it which meant that it was not possible to see from one end to the other.

The house Jim was looking for was number 52. As that was an even number, he chose the odd-number side of the road and began to walk steadily along the road, looking at the houses on the other side. The road was cobbled and narrow. One could easily imagine gas lighting, swirling fog and hansom cabs from some low budget drama about late Victorian or Edwardian London. Parking on both sides of the road meant there wasn’t really enough room for two cars to pass. He was surprised that the road had not been made “one way”, but then he noticed that all the parked cars were in fact facing towards him and then, in the distance an arrow painted on the cobbled surface. So it was a one way street.

The houses formed unbroken terraces and were all of a similar design, built of dirty yellow, London stock brick. Each house was four stories above street level, with a further basement visible through a tiny courtyard. Most of the front doors were painted black and were accessed by a sort-of bridge from the street and each courtyard was surrounded by iron railings with ornate finials at the corners. Many of the houses had multiple bell pushes and some had name-plates of various designs. Subdivision of these buildings into fashionable flats or offices was obviously common.

Jim thought he identified the house he wanted, on the other side of the road and what he saw was troubling. Unlike all the other houses with their glossy black doors exuding an air of opulence, or at least fashionable prosperity, this house made him think of decay. The brickwork was grubby and front door and railings were painted a light blue or turquoise which had faded from years of exposure to the sunlight. As he looked up and down the building he could see that all the windows except the very top storey were shuttered on the inside. Had someone played some kind of strange trick on him? Has he wasted the effort (and expense) of this trip?

Without hesitating further, Jim crossed the road and marched up the steps to the front door. One of the panels on the door was defaced with a modern aluminium letter-box. Beneath that was pinned a laminated, printed sign for “Dr G, Medinger” indicating a doorbell button which might easily have been overlooked. Taking a deep breath, Jim pressed the button. There was no sound from beyond the door.

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 8th January 2017 – 291 words)

Interview (1) – Goodge Street

(New subsection of paragraphs)

Goodge Street is one of the remaining stations on the Central London Tube where the platforms are served by lifts. As he looked at the back of the person in front of him, Jim wondered why he had bothered to take the lift, with a little additional effort he could have climbed the emergency stairs, in fact he had considered walking from Euston but had decided against it. In either case, the exercise would have contributed to a New Year’s resolution of “taking more exercise”.

The station’s décor of dark wood and glazed tiles gave it a retro feel. Come to think of it, this wasn’t retro at all – this was mostly the original look from Edwardian London! In contrast, the lift was lined with some sort of grey laminate with the joints trimmed with aluminium strips. He supposed this was in the interests of it being hard-wearing. High in one of the corners, beneath the ceiling, Jim could see a CCTV camera staring blindly at him.

The previous evening, he had decided to that he might find a reasonably priced hotel and treat himself to an evening out in town before going home tomorrow. As a result he was trailing a small wheeled suitcase and he felt awkward in the crowded lift.

A gentle drizzle was falling when Jim emerged from the station entrance. He ducked into a shop doorway and checked the location of the street he wanted in battered London A to Z. He had marked the page with a paperclip.  It was only a couple of hundred yards from the station to his destination. He turned away from the crowds of Tottenham Court Road in the hinterland of back-streets and set off steadily along the damp pavement.

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 8th January 2017 – 291 words)

An Enquiry (5) - Preparation

(New subsection of paragraphs)

Suddenly Jim found his life in turmoil. Jerked from the gentle, purposeless drifting of the preceding months he found that he now had a purpose, only he didn’t know what it was. He found there were things to do, and he needed to do them. He had committed himself to going for an interview, for an unspecified job in two days’ time!

Within a quarter of an hour of the call from Anastasia Litvenyenko he received the eMail telling him where he was to go, and even directions from Goodge Street, the nearest Tube station. Exploration on the internet told him nothing about the location. It was an unremarkable, narrow street of 19^th Century houses. No doubt many of them served as offices for companies. Apart from the profile of Anastasia Litvenyenko, there was very little about her employer, Dr Medinger (was it Gustav?), except for references to some old research papers or even any company they were associated with.

Jim decided he would travel to London by train. It meant an early start, but he could cope with that. He would take the mainline train to Euston station and then the Tube to Goodge Street. From there it was only a short walk. He booked his Train ticket online, and printed the confirmation. He fished his old Oyster card from the pouch containing his passport and put it with the rail ticked. It was a long time since he had been to central London.

Once he had made his transport arrangements, Jim began the business of brushing and pressing his suit. He shook it out and hung it on the back of his bedroom door. He took a silk tie, still in its wrapping from the dry cleaners and draped that over the coat-hanger and ironed a white shirt. He found the little box containing cuff-links and tie pins and put it on his bedside cabinet.

He looked at himself in the mirror. He was excited. He told himself not to build up any hopes or expectations and got on with the tasks he had for the rest of the day.

(This is the location I have chosen at random from Google maps. The description is not much like the house. Here is the house I going to use as the basis for the external description - I don't know anything about it, but it hasn't changed much in 20 years.)

(Part of the “Tyson” project: 6th January 2017 – 352 words)